UFC Fight Night 73 Picks From The Secret Psychic Spy~!
By the Secret Psychic Spy (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Starting Bankroll: $1,500
Current Bankroll: $713
Last week: 2/5 Overall 72/129 (56%)
The bankroll took a bit of a hit last week, going 2/5. Going out on a limb here for UFC Fight Night 73, picking 3 underdogs. I think there’s tremendous value in these picks and we’re due for a good week here. With no other big shows this weekend, these picks are all from tomorrow night’s UFC show.
Pick 1 – Sam Alvey (26-6) +335 over Derek Brunson (13-3) I’m betting $100 to win $335
I was surprised to see Alvey as an underdog here, let along this big of one. He’s had 3 straight first round KO’s coming into the biggest fight of his career. This is a big step up for him but I like him to keep his recent momentum going to score the upset here.
Pick 2 – Roman Salazar (9-3) +110 over Marlon Vieira (8-2-1) I’m betting $100 to win $110
Both guys are looking for their first UFC win here. The reasons I like Salazar here is that he’s faced a much tougher level of competition, having lost to veteran Mitch Gagnon in his UFC debut, while Vieira lost to a fellow TUF Latin American castmate. Prior to their UFC careers, Salazar had a 4 fight win streak, while Vieira had a loss on the regional circuit.
Pick 3 – Frankie Saenz (9-2) +100 over Sirwan Kakai (12-2) I’m betting $100 to win $100
Both guys are unbeaten in UFC but Saenz is coming off a win over veteran Iuri Alcantara. That shows that he’s someone to be taken seriously in this division. This should be a hell of a fight and Saenz should take the win and stamp a place for himself as a contender.
Pick 4 – Chris Camozzi (21-10) -150 over Tom Watson (17-8) I’m betting $100 to win $66.67
Both of these guys need a win badly and I feel like Camozzi might be the more desperate fighter. He was cut from UFC and recently returned on short notice to face the very tough Jacare Souza. While he lost that fight, he’s being given another chance here in a fight he has to win in order to keep his place in the UFC. Watson has a sub-.500 record in UFC and I don’t see that changing here.
Pick 5 – Jonathan Wilson (6-0) -155 over Chris Dempsey (11-2)
Wilson is making his UFC debut and has been fighting at Heavyweight. He’s fighting here at 205 but comes in having knocked out all but one of his pro opponents in the higher weight class. Dempsey is susceptible to the KO, having been stopped in the first round by Ilir Latifi in his UFC debut and although he won his followup fight with Eddie Gordon, he didn’t look particularly good in doing so. Wilson should have a successful start to his UFC career and keep his unbeaten record intact.
All told, I’m betting $500 with a chance to win $676.18
On with the betting game.
2015 Betting Game: Secret Psychic Spy vs Ryan Frederick
Ryan Frederick: $1,082.53 (Picked Aguilar, Eye, Leites, Lawler, Gordon, Hein, Alvarez, Ortega, Noons, Browne, Magny, Matthews)
Secret Psychic Spy: $1,470.18 (Picked Bruno, Duke, Rivera, Samman, Bosse, Amirkhani, Henderson, Breese, Pyle, Wee, Andrews)
We both lost last week, so I retain my lead. The picks overall are still very profitable so if you only take one pick, you’re doing alright generally if you only bet on our betting game picks.
This week, I’m going with the slight underdog Roman Salazar at +110.
Tom Watson +130 over Chris Camozzi
One of the very few underdogs on the card I think has a chance and I’m going with it. Watson has trained with the Blackzilians in preparation for this fight, and he should be much improved. He is already a solid fighter, never will be elite, but neither will Camozzi. Both tend to have close fights and Watson should find a way to score a close decision win.
Good luck, enjoy the fights and remember, don’t bet more than you can afford to lose and try to have fun with it!